A new analysis published in PLOS One links the public endorsement of white replacement conspiracy theories by political leaders to measurable increases in real-world extremist activity, with a stronger signal at the local level than across the nation. The researchers found that as endorsements accumulate, episodes of white supremacist organising tend to rise, and attention to immigration within affected constituencies also increases.
White replacement theories describe a belief that a secret faction is engineering mass immigration to replace a country’s native-born population. Though these ideas have surfaced periodically in various Western democracies over the past century, their appearance in mainstream political discourse in recent years has varied in tone—from explicit language about demographic replacement to subtler insinuations that immigration is being encouraged to secure future votes.
Sociologists Jack Gabriel Risien Wippell and Laura Dugan of The Ohio State University sought to determine whether such political rhetoric translates into tangible social consequences. Their hypothesis was that endorsements from prominent leaders might embolden individuals with prejudiced views, normalising hostile language and lowering the perceived risks of collective action.
The study pooled a database of public statements by federal and state legislators and political candidates between 2021 and 2023, isolating 25 endorsements that received coverage in major news outlets. A statement qualified as an endorsement only if it framed immigration as a deliberate plot to replace a native population, ensuring the focus remained on rhetoric that reached a broad audience through media amplification.
In the national analysis, the researchers compared the timing and accumulation of endorsements with weekly data on immigration-related Google searches and with national records of white supremacist protests and demonstrations from the Anti-Defamation League. The data covered a three-year period and aimed to capture broader national trends in extremism alongside public interest.
At the national level, the team found a positive association between the build-up of political endorsements and the occurrence of white supremacist events. In contrast, the same accumulation did not show a statistically significant link with national Google search activity on immigration, suggesting that media coverage of the statements did not directly translate into a uniform spike in nationwide public interest.
The researchers then turned to a state-by-state analysis, examining data on a monthly basis and tying each endorsement to the state of the politician responsible. This local perspective also tracked state-level Google searches for immigration and expanded the extremism metrics to include the distribution of white supremacist propaganda within each state.
Within individual states, the associations proved more robust. When state representatives endorsed replacement theories, their constituencies experienced rises in both white supremacist events and the dissemination of propaganda. The findings indicate that local political environments can significantly influence community-level extremist activity and the spread of related material.
Moreover, the state-level analysis showed a shift in general public attention. The accumulation of endorsements at the state level correlated with increased Google searches about immigration within those states, implying a stronger influence of local politicians on the attention of their immediate constituents than on the national discourse.
The researchers acknowledged several limitations. Measuring media exposure precisely is difficult because clips and quotes can spread virally through personal networks and untracked social channels. The study treats media exposure as a flat metric between statements, which likely understates the broader reach of the rhetoric.
Additionally, Google Trends data measures relative search interest rather than absolute volumes, meaning it reflects proportional shifts in attention within a limited attention economy. The authors also noted a potential bidirectional dynamic at the state level: while endorsements may draw attention to immigration, rising public interest could, in turn, prompt politicians to increase their use of these narratives.
The study, Endorsing narratives of white replacement: Elite discourse, public attention, and extremist mobilization, was authored by Jack Gabriel Risien Wippell and Laura Dugan of The Ohio State University.
