Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s plan to leave office in 2030 may signal not a retreat by the military from politics, but an attempt to secure its influence over the country’s next leadership.
Speaking at a graduation ceremony at the Egyptian Military Academy, Mr el-Sisi said his departure after his third presidential term ends in April 2030 was settled and that “no one would tamper with” the constitution.
The announcement surprised observers who had expected him to seek changes allowing him to remain in power for another term, or potentially indefinitely.
There is speculation that the declaration could be intended to generate public pressure for a fourth term, or to deter a possible move by the armed forces against him if Egypt’s economic difficulties deepen. But the proposal for a controlled succession appears to offer a third possibility.
Voluntarily leaving power would carry risks for Mr el-Sisi. A future government could seek to blame him for the country’s problems and potentially investigate alleged crimes committed during his presidency.
Mr el-Sisi led the 2013 coup against Mohamed Morsi, Egypt’s first democratically elected president. The overthrow was accompanied by massacres and the imprisonment of tens of thousands of politicians, activists and journalists.
His economic record has also drawn criticism, with opponents accusing his government of corruption, poor fiscal management and extravagant spending on major projects. Egypt’s debt is equivalent to 81 per cent of gross domestic product, while interest payments exceed combined spending on healthcare, education, wages and subsidies.
The Egyptian pound has lost more than 80 per cent of its value against the US dollar since 2014, and cumulative inflation has exceeded 460 per cent.
Some observers doubt that Mr el-Sisi will ultimately leave office. In 2013, after Mr Morsi was removed, he denied that he would run for president. In 2017, he said he was committed to preserving the constitution’s “two four-year terms and not changing it”, before helping lead a campaign to amend it in 2019.
A judicial source has said the latest announcement still leaves room for a “popular call” for Mr el-Sisi to remain president.
Military influence over Egypt’s succession
Another possibility is that Mr el-Sisi is seeking to avoid being removed by the military. In 2011, the armed forces forced former president Hosni Mubarak to step down after popular protests.
If public anger grows, the army could attempt to present Mr el-Sisi as responsible for the country’s difficulties, remove him and install a successor capable of preserving stability and protecting its extensive economic interests. A member of parliament has said Mr el-Sisi privately expressed a preference for resigning rather than waiting to be forced out.
However, the proposed succession process suggests that the president may be preparing to leave office while preserving Egypt’s military-dominated political system.
During his announcement, Mr el-Sisi referred to Article 200 of the constitution, which was amended in 2019 and gives the armed forces responsibility for protecting the country’s “democracy” and the “gains, rights and freedoms” of the Egyptian people.
He said the provision was designed “to protect the Egyptian state from any attempt to infiltrate it or allow people to take it over who cannot handle the responsibility of this country or who do not even understand the meaning of ‘state’”.
Article 200, together with Article 234, gives the military a significant role in political life. The latter requires a president to secure approval from the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces before appointing a defence minister.
Mr el-Sisi has proposed creating a committee of experts to draft legislation for selecting hundreds of highly educated Egyptians for specialised training at the Military Academy. Candidates would be aged between 40 and 50, hold doctorates and spend 30 months studying the Egyptian state.
The programme would also prepare future ministers, governors and MPs. Combined with the constitutional powers given to the armed forces, it could help preserve military dominance long after Mr el-Sisi leaves the presidency.
A transition managed by the military would also make it less likely that an independent civilian president would investigate allegations surrounding the massacres, corruption or other alleged crimes linked to Mr el-Sisi’s rule.
The unresolved question is how Egypt’s increasingly frustrated public will respond to a political process shaped by the armed forces and offering little need for a popular mandate.
