Gina Hinojosa has moved four points ahead of Greg Abbott in the Texas governor race, according to a new ReconMR and Siena Research Institute poll conducted less than a month before early voting begins.
The survey puts the Democratic challenger on 49 per cent, compared with 45 per cent for the Republican incumbent. In July, Abbott held a narrow 46-45 lead over Hinojosa.
The change has been driven largely by independent voters. Hinojosa now leads that group by 65 per cent to 27 per cent, a 38-point advantage compared with a 49-36 lead in July.
Hinojosa also holds sizeable advantages in Austin, the Dallas-Fort Worth area and San Antonio, while Abbott remains ahead in more rural parts of Texas.
Texas governor race remains unsettled despite Hinojosa lead
Despite Hinojosa’s lead in the poll, most voters still expect Abbott to win in November. Sixty-two per cent said they believed the governor would be re-elected, including almost a third of those who said they intended to vote for Hinojosa.
The survey found that both candidates were broadly viewed as qualified to serve as governor. Abbott was rated qualified by 56 per cent of voters, compared with 53 per cent for Hinojosa.
Hinojosa was seen as better placed to make prices more affordable, manage the state’s water supply and oversee the construction of data centres. Abbott held the advantage on securing the US-Mexico border and keeping Texans safe.
Hinojosa led Abbott by 51 per cent to 44 per cent on affordability, and by 49 per cent to 43 per cent on water management. On border security, Abbott led 53 per cent to 39 per cent, while he held a 49-44 advantage on public safety.
The poll was carried out between 8 and 11 September among 614 likely Texas voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points, meaning the result remains within the range in which the contest could be considered close.
The findings also underline the uncertainty in the wider polling picture. A separate Emerson College and Nexstar Media survey conducted from 12 to 14 September put Abbott ahead of Hinojosa by 49 per cent to 46 per cent.
Texas Politics Project polling data shows the latest surveys producing differing results, with Abbott leading in several recent polls while others have shown the race level or Hinojosa in front.
