Andy Burnham appears to have gained a boost from his Labour conference speech, with the party opening a five-point lead over Reform as speculation about a snap election continues.
The latest Opinium poll puts Labour on 30 per cent, up two points and its highest rating from the firm since 2024. Reform has risen one point to 25 per cent, while the Conservatives remain on 17 per cent.
The figures could give Mr Burnham a narrow majority if he chose to call an early election, despite his repeated attempts to dismiss the possibility. Electoral Calculus projects that the result could translate into 342 Labour seats, 155 for Reform and 55 for the Conservatives.
However, the projections come with significant uncertainty because of the volatility of voting patterns in individual constituencies.
Mr Burnham declared the prospect of a snap election “dead” before last week’s Labour conference. But in his keynote speech in Liverpool, he set out proposals on social care, electoral reform, the state pension triple lock and Brexit which would only be implemented after an election.
Kemi Badenoch, who is opening the Conservative conference in Birmingham, has told her party to be prepared for a ballot in May.
The Opinium survey also found that Mr Burnham’s personal rating had improved by one point, leaving him with a net positive score of eight. Ms Badenoch recorded a score of minus one, while Nigel Farage was on minus 22.
Voters generally backed the idea of a national social care service, which Mr Burnham proposed without setting out full details on its funding or timetable.
There was also support for his pledge to examine “options” for the UK’s relationship with the European Union, although the proposal was not accompanied by a detailed plan.
James Crouch, Opinium’s head of policy and public affairs, said Mr Burnham had shown he could deliver a conference speech “backed by major policy announcements” that dominated the political agenda.
“The question now is simple: can Kemi Badenoch seize the country’s attention next week in anything like the same way?” he said.
