Manchester City could face a points deduction that would send them into the Championship, along with a substantial fine, after an independent commission found the club guilty of most of the 115 financial wrongdoing charges brought by the Premier League.
People close to the process believe expulsion from the Premier League is unlikely, despite the scale of the case and the strength of feeling among some rival supporters. Instead, the most probable outcome is understood to be a points penalty severe enough to ensure relegation.
A further deduction could also be imposed, potentially keeping City in the Championship for at least another season. The English Football League would not be required to accept such a sanction for one of its clubs, although it is considered likely to do so.
The Premier League is thought to want the punishment announced before City’s appeal is resolved. That appeal is unlikely to be decided before the end of January, prolonging uncertainty over the club’s future and the effect of the verdict on the current title race.
City have made an impressive start to the season, winning their opening seven league matches under new manager Enzo Maresca following Pep Guardiola’s departure. Their form has led broadcasters and analysts to describe the Premier League title contest as a two-horse race.
However, the commission’s findings have cast a shadow over City’s position at the top of the table. The delay in imposing a sanction means the club remains involved in the title contest while the consequences of the verdict are still being determined.
Why Premier League expulsion is considered unlikely
Removing City from the competition during the season would create major practical difficulties for both the Premier League and the EFL. Their matches would have to be dealt with retrospectively, with previous results potentially declared null and void.
Expulsion would also leave the club without a competition in which to play for the remainder of the campaign. While some have called for City to be made to suffer, such a punishment could disrupt the wider league and impose a heavy cost on supporters who were not responsible for the alleged wrongdoing.
Steven Gerrard, the former Liverpool captain, has been open about his wish for City to “suffer” for what he believes they took from rival clubs and their fans. But the proposed approach is expected to focus on a substantial sporting and financial penalty rather than removing the club from the football pyramid altogether.
The independent commission’s decision has also raised questions about the future of City’s ownership. If the club’s appeal fails, there will be pressure to consider whether those found responsible for the sustained financial breaches can continue as its custodians.
Allowing the present ownership to remain could damage the authority of the Independent Football Regulator, while replacing the Abu Dhabi United Group would raise questions about how City could operate without the hundreds of millions of pounds in revenue the club says came directly from the Abu Dhabi government.
The prolonged process has left the Premier League facing continued uncertainty. Until the punishment and the appeal are resolved, City’s position in the title race and the longer-term future of one of English football’s leading clubs will remain unsettled.
