The Parti Québécois has won the Quebec election and will form the next provincial government, bringing the prospect of a third referendum on independence from Canada back to the centre of national politics.
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the party’s leader, is expected to become premier after the secessionist party secured the most seats in the predominantly French-speaking province.
During the campaign, Mr Plamondon promised to hold a referendum on independence during the party’s first term. He said the vote would not take place until after US President Donald Trump leaves office in January 2029.
It was not immediately clear whether the Parti Québécois had won the 64 seats required for a majority in Quebec’s 127-seat National Assembly. If it has fallen short, the party will have to govern as a minority and rely on opposition support to pass major legislation and survive confidence votes.
The result ends eight years of government by the Coalition Avenir Quebec, a centre-right Quebec nationalist party that does not support independence.
It also represents a sharp recovery for the Parti Québécois, which won only three seats in the 2022 provincial election. The party last governed Quebec between 2012 and 2014.
Daniel Beland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, said the result reflected the province’s divided, multi-party political system rather than a major increase in support for secession. Support for independence remains at about 30 per cent, he said, which is low by historical standards.
Nevertheless, the result presents a fresh national-unity challenge for Prime Minister Mark Carney, particularly with another independence-related vote approaching in Alberta.
“Seeing that a pro-independence party won in Quebec barely two weeks before an independence-related referendum takes place in Alberta might suggest to the Trump administration that national unity remains a major issue in Canada despite the popularity of Mark Carney,” Mr Beland said.
Quebec has held two previous referendums on independence, in 1980 and 1995. Voters rejected secession on both occasions, although the second ballot was decided by a narrow margin.
No further referendum has been held in the three decades since.
