One Nation is hoping its breakthrough in the federal seat of Farrer will translate into gains at the Victorian state election, with regional electorates including Shepparton, Mildura, Ovens Valley, Benambra and Murray Plains emerging as key tests of the party’s support.
The party’s victory in Farrer in May, when David Farley overturned 77 years of Coalition control, has heightened concern among Nationals candidates facing voters who feel neglected by the major parties.
Farrer stretches across 126,563 square kilometres of south-western New South Wales, taking in Albury, Griffith and Deniliquin. Across the Murray River lies Shepparton, a Victorian seat with a similar reliance on agriculture and a long history of Coalition support.
Associate professor of politics at Monash University Zareh Ghazarian said regional electorates would be “critical” in determining the make-up of Victoria’s next government.
“One Nation has traditionally done best in electorates that are in rural and regional parts of the community,” he said, adding that “some of the vibes from Farrer may influence how people respond just next door.”
Regional seats become a test for One Nation
One Nation’s performance will be closely watched in Mildura, where the Nationals hold the seat by a margin of 1.2 per cent. The party also expects to perform strongly in Ovens Valley and Benambra, despite both seats normally being regarded as safe with double-digit margins.
In Murray Plains, the Nationals secured a 23.4 per cent margin in 2022, but the retirement of former state leader Peter Walsh has made the seat less certain.
Ghazarian described the electorates as a “test bed” for One Nation’s prospects in Victorian politics.
“These are the electorates … that are going to be critical to shaping what the next Victorian government is going to look like and who it’s going to be made up of,” he said.
“If [the party] makes inroads here, then it can potentially build a foothold and consolidate in future elections. [But] if it can’t dislodge the Nationals at this election, then it’s going to be very difficult, you would think, in other parts of the state.”
Shepparton has previously shown that the Nationals can be defeated. Independent Suzanna Sheed won the seat in 2014, ending a 47-year run for the party, and retained it in 2018 before the Nationals reclaimed it in 2022.
The Nationals are running Shepparton mayor Shane Sali, whose local profile is being set against One Nation candidate Phillip Bryant, who is relatively untested in electoral politics.
Former Nationals state director Matthew Harris said the Farrer byelection should not be treated as a direct guide to the Victorian contest because voters had been able to use it to express dissatisfaction without changing the government.
“There wasn’t an opportunity to change the government or change the direction of the state,” said Harris, now chief executive of government consultancy Barton Deakin. “People could vote for One Nation to make a point, to show they were frustrated.”
Ghazarian also cautioned that byelections were often shaped by highly local concerns and that the result could have been a message to the federal government rather than an indication of voting intentions in Victoria.
Shepparton campaign focuses on roads and services
Greater Shepparton’s economy generates $4.8 billion in gross domestic product each year and accounts for a quarter of Victoria’s agricultural production. Horticulture, manufacturing and dairy are major industries, with perishable goods transported by heavy trucks across the region’s road network.
Infrastructure has become a central issue, including proposals for a second crossing of the Goulburn River and a wider package to improve the resilience of local roads.
Harris said regional voters had long believed the Labor government was more focused on Melbourne, while the Suburban Rail Loop was expected to cost at least $30 billion.
“People are struggling for basic services and for potholes to be fixed” in regional areas, he said.
Harris said Sali’s local reputation could help the Nationals withstand the One Nation challenge in Shepparton.
“When it comes down to it, Shane Sali is a well known, incredibly popular mayor and local,” he said. “The One Nation candidate is relatively unknown. And people are going to choose someone who is going to fight for them as part of the government.”
Jim Reed, founder of Resolve Strategic, said the combination of local concerns and a history of support for independent candidates made Shepparton one of the regional seats to watch.
“Much of the attention is on the raft of Melbourne seats that might change this election, but there are a number of seats in the regions that could tip the balance,” Reed said.
“Locals have shown a propensity to swing behind independents in the past, which is a sign they value a local voice outside the major parties,” he said. “That’s one of the appeals of One Nation, so it will be on their radar.”
Polling from the Resolve Political Monitor has put One Nation’s primary vote above 20 per cent consistently since April, leaving the party seeking to turn sustained support into a foothold in Victoria’s regional seats.
