Washington and Tel Aviv are reportedly preparing a major bombing campaign against Iran’s energy infrastructure as soon as this weekend. British drivers have already lived through one fuel-price shock this year. Here is exactly what happens at UK forecourts if the bombs fall — and how fast.
The United States and Israel are planning strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure that could begin as soon as this weekend, according to sources cited by CBS News, though a final decision has not yet been made. Tehran says it is preparing a response of its own, and Saudi Arabia’s crown prince has personally urged President Trump against a fresh round of attacks.
For most of the world, that is a geopolitical story. For anyone in Britain with a car, it is a household-budget story — because this year has already shown, in painful detail, exactly what happens at UK pumps when this conflict escalates.
What 2026 has already cost British drivers
When US-Israeli strikes on Iran began in late February, a litre of petrol in the UK averaged about 132p and diesel about 142p, according to RAC data. Within weeks, Iran’s disruption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — the channel carrying roughly a fifth of the world’s oil — sent Brent crude towards $120 a barrel.
The pump-price response was brutal. Petrol climbed around 20% to a peak of 159.53p a litre, while diesel hit 191.54p in mid-April — adding roughly £14 to the cost of filling a typical family diesel car and about £10 for petrol. At the height of the crisis, the boss of Asda, one of Britain’s biggest fuel retailers, warned of temporary shortages at some forecourts as demand outstripped supply.
A June deal that reopened the Strait brought relief: Brent fell back below $80, and by early July petrol had eased to around 151p and diesel to about 167p. Then the fighting resumed.
Where things stand right now
The past two weeks have been a rollercoaster. Renewed strikes and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping pushed Brent back above $100 in late July. A brief pause for diplomacy dragged it down towards $84 — before an attempted Iranian missile attack on US forces in Jordan, intercepted by air defences, sent crude surging almost 8% in a single day to close near $91.
That is the launchpad from which any new strike campaign would begin. And this time, the reported targets are different: not military sites, but Iran’s energy infrastructure itself — the fields, refineries and export terminals that feed the global market. Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, has warned that continued escalation could push Brent beyond its 2022 record of $128 a barrel, with the 2008 all-time high of $146 in play in a worst-case scenario.
The three scenarios for your next fill-up
Scenario one: strikes happen, Hormuz stays open. Oil spikes on the news — this year’s pattern suggests jumps of 5–10% within days — then partially settles if tankers keep moving. Pump prices drift up by several pence over two to three weeks. Painful, but familiar.
Scenario two: Iran closes or disrupts the Strait again. This is the nightmare for drivers. The last closure took diesel to within a whisker of its all-time record. With crude starting from $91 rather than the $70s, analysts’ warnings of $128-plus oil come into view — implying pump prices beyond anything seen in 2026 so far, with diesel likely smashing through the 192p peak.
Scenario three: diplomacy wins, strikes are shelved. July showed how fast this can flip the other way: when the two sides paused hostilities, Brent shed more than 10% in days. Pump prices would resume their slow summer decline.
Why you won’t feel it at the pump tomorrow — but will within a fortnight
Wholesale fuel prices react to oil within hours. Forecourt prices do not. The Petrol Retailers Association’s executive director, Gordon Balmer, has explained that retailers buy stock on very different cycles — some daily, others weekly, fortnightly or even every three weeks — which is why pump prices typically take one to two weeks to fully reflect a crude-oil shock, and why they climb faster than they fall.
Diesel drivers get hit hardest and fastest. The UK has fewer refineries than ever and the ones it has are geared towards petrol, leaving Britain unusually dependent on imported diesel. That is precisely why diesel jumped 18p a litre in two weeks earlier this year while petrol rose more slowly — a pattern the RAC’s Simon Williams summed up bluntly: <cite index=”71-1″>”Drivers with diesel cars are really feeling the heat.”</cite>
What drivers can actually do
Panic-buying is the one guaranteed way to turn a price problem into a supply problem — the “odd pump” outages earlier this year were driven partly by surging demand, not empty terminals. What does work: shopping around. Data from the government’s Fuel Finder scheme shows prices between nearby stations can differ by 20p a litre or more, and members-only and supermarket forecourts consistently undercut the national average by several pence. On a 55-litre tank, that gap is worth over £10.
A full-blown UK petrol shortage remains unlikely even in the worst scenario: Britain buys most of its crude from Norway, the US and other non-Gulf suppliers and holds strategic reserves. The risk to UK drivers is price, not availability.
The bottom line
If this weekend passes quietly, drivers get a reprieve — and possibly cheaper fuel by September. If the reported strike plans go ahead, history from just five months ago says the countdown starts immediately: oil first, wholesale within hours, and your local forecourt within a fortnight. Watch two numbers: the price of Brent crude, and whether tankers keep sailing through Hormuz. Everything at the pump follows from those.
FAQ
Will UK petrol prices go up if the US strikes Iran? Almost certainly, if strikes materially disrupt Iranian oil exports or traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier in 2026, the conflict pushed UK petrol up around 20% to a peak of 159.53p a litre and diesel to 191.54p. Pump prices typically rise within one to two weeks of an oil-price spike.
How high could petrol prices go in the UK in 2026? It depends on the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets have warned Brent crude could exceed its 2022 record of $128 a barrel if escalation continues — a level that would likely push UK diesel past its April 2026 peak of just under 192p and petrol well beyond 160p.
Why is diesel rising faster than petrol in the UK? The UK’s remaining refineries are geared towards producing petrol, making Britain heavily reliant on imported diesel. When global supply tightens, diesel prices at UK pumps therefore climb faster and further than petrol.
How much of the world’s oil goes through the Strait of Hormuz? Roughly one-fifth of global oil supply transits the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway along Iran’s southern coast, along with substantial volumes of liquefied natural gas. Its closure earlier in 2026 sent Brent crude towards $120 a barrel.
