Verizon chief executive Dan Schulman has predicted that artificial general intelligence (AGI) could arrive within 18 months, warning that technological progress made over a century could be compressed into as little as five to 10 years.
Speaking at the Ford Pro Accelerate event in Detroit, Schulman said AI models were improving at a pace that would make today’s systems appear outdated. “Every two months, there’s a step function change in the power of the models,” he said.
“I think we get to some form of AGI in the next six to 18 months. I think it’s right on us.”
AGI is generally used to describe systems capable of reasoning and performing across a broad range of tasks, rather than being limited to specific functions. Schulman said its effects would reach far beyond individual businesses, putting pressure on training systems, labour markets, corporate structures and public policy.
“It is about machines that will in many ways be able to do things better than a lot of human tasks are done today,” he said.
Schulman forecast that the pace of change would accelerate further after the arrival of AGI. Within two years, he said, society could enter “the era of quantum”, which he described as “everything today times 1,000”. By 2030 or 2035, he predicted, there would be “a pretty good form of humanoid robotics”.
“We’ve got a decade of intense change ahead of us,” he said.
Verizon prepares for an AI-driven workforce
The Verizon chief said the company would itself have to adapt as technology altered the nature of work. Verizon has more than 250,000 employees and contractors, he said, and would need to move away from an organisation built around “very defined roles and functions” towards a “much more fluid organisation”.
“Everybody’s job is going to shift,” Schulman said. “I don’t think everybody will land just magically in a better place per se.”
He said Verizon had announced a 70 million dollar initiative to provide AI training for American workers, including people who do not work for the telecommunications company. The programme is intended to offer free training and work with local organisations on career development.
Schulman urged businesses and governments to plan for the possibility that disruption would arrive faster than institutions could respond. “Our responsibility is to think about what might go wrong, what might we need to address, what might the disruption look like, and how do we put guardrails, training, programs in place to minimize that risk,” he said.
He also cautioned that safeguards would be needed as the technology advanced. “The technology is coming,” he said. “There will be safeguards around it. There need to be additional safeguards, but it will continue on.”
Schulman described the scale of the coming change in stark terms when asked what he meant by a possible “collapse” of the 21st century.
“I think you’ll see the collapse of the 21st century in the next five to 10 years,” he said, explaining that “progress we would have made over 100 years will happen over the next five to 10 years”.
“I don’t think we can really imagine how powerful the technology and how fundamental it will be.”
Executives see AI changing, rather than ending, skilled work
Other business leaders at the event offered a more incremental view of how AI would affect employment, stressing that the technology boom would create continued demand for physical and technical skills.
Patti Poppe, chief executive of PG&E, said the electricity grid would increasingly use sensors, remote-edge computing and predictive systems to identify risks before they caused outages or wildfires. But she said skilled workers would still be needed to install and maintain the infrastructure.
“The same guys who hang on the end of the rope are going to have to get smarter about those kinds of technologies,” Poppe said. “I’m still going to need those people. Somebody’s still going to have to connect that wire to the pole.”
Dave Regnery, chief executive of Trane Technologies, said his company was using AI to improve the efficiency of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems in buildings. He argued that the technology could create demand for technicians able to install, operate and service more sophisticated equipment.
“Most people don’t realize that 30% of all the energy is for buildings,” Regnery said. “And you know what? Thirty percent of that is wasted.”
Trane’s systems can manage buildings according to how they are actually being used, rather than relying solely on their original design specifications. Regnery said this could make buildings operate roughly 15% more efficiently than their design baseline.
Chris Nelson, chief executive of Stanley Black & Decker, described AI-enabled autonomous drilling robots being used on construction projects. The machines can work from digital plans, map routes and drill holes for racks in data centres and other buildings.
Nelson said the purpose was to remove repetitive work rather than replace electricians and other skilled tradespeople, allowing them to concentrate on wiring, connections and problems requiring judgement.
“What do the electricians and other skilled tradespeople not like to do all day?” he said. “Sit and core drill.”
He described AI as a “companion on the construction site”, suggesting it could make jobs more engaging while giving workers greater responsibility and a route into management or their own businesses.
Infrastructure demand points to labour shortages
Dan Peyovich, chief executive of telecommunications infrastructure company Dycom, said the immediate challenge for his business was finding enough workers to build the networks required for the expansion of AI and other technologies.
Dycom employs roughly 21,000 people nationwide, he said, and connects homes and businesses through fibre and telecommunications infrastructure. The company has responded to a tightening labour market by improving benefits and expanding training in technical skills, management, leadership and workplace technology.
It has also established a training facility near Atlanta. Peyovich said the aim was to provide workers with a long-term career path, rather than simply teaching them how to use a new software tool.
“We want to try and create a path for people,” he said. “While they’re getting a paycheck, they can learn and find their way.”
The different assessments all pointed to a labour market in transition, with automation taking over some repetitive tasks while increasing demand for people able to build, maintain and manage the systems behind it.
Schulman’s central warning was that companies and policymakers should not assume workers would automatically move into better jobs as AI developed.
“We need to be prepared in case a different scenario emerges,” he said, “so that we can make sure that we have skilled workers, whether they be craftsmen or professionals.”
