Kemi Badenoch appears to have secured a Tory conference poll bounce, with the Conservatives gaining three points as speculation about an early general election grows in Westminster.
The latest Opinium survey put Labour on 29 per cent, while Reform UK stood at 23 per cent, down two points on the previous week. The Conservatives’ rise suggested that Mrs Badenoch’s pledge to reduce inheritance tax had resonated with some voters.
Labour retained a substantial lead in the research, conducted from Wednesday to Friday last week. Electoral Calculus estimated the figures could translate into 336 Labour MPs, 114 Conservatives and 105 Reform MPs.
That projected outcome could give Labour a small majority, although the individual constituency picture was described as highly volatile.
A third of those surveyed said they viewed Mrs Badenoch’s conference speech positively, more than twice the 14 per cent who responded negatively. However, 54 per cent said they did not have a clear view of it.
Conservatives prepare for possible election
Mrs Badenoch has said the Conservatives must be prepared for a general election “at any point”, rejecting efforts by Andy Burnham to dismiss the possibility of an early contest.
Conservative strategists believe the Prime Minister could be tempted to call an election while enjoying a honeymoon period and amid difficulties for the Greens.
Zack Polanski’s personal rating fell by a further seven points over the past week to a net score of minus 29, according to Opinium, making him the least popular of the main party leaders.
The Greens’ poll rating has halved this year, with voters apparently moving back towards Labour. Mr Polanski also failed to win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election last week and has faced anger over the party’s “Zionism is Racism” conference motion.
Mrs Badenoch’s aides were reportedly on alert during the Labour conference in case Mr Burnham used his speech to trigger a contest. Some Conservatives believe an election before Christmas cannot be ruled out.
The party has held election meetings since July and has a draft manifesto and campaign schedule in place, including the seats Mrs Badenoch would visit and the public appearances she would make.
Mrs Badenoch said: “We know there’s a battle of ideas coming in British politics and I’ve instructed the Conservative Party to be ready for an election at any point.”
She added: “When that election comes there will be a simple choice between Conservative plans to get Britain working again and a Labour party that keeps putting up taxes, refuses to cut welfare and won’t fund our defence.”
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said both Mr Burnham and Mrs Badenoch had delivered commanding speeches, secured positive headlines and increased their parties’ vote shares.
“Together, the two main parties now have their highest combined share in almost two years,” he said. “The question is whether this is as good as it gets for the old guard, or the beginning of a genuine trend.”
