Florida’s governor and US Senate races have tightened significantly, with Republican candidates Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody holding only narrow leads over their Democratic opponents, according to a University of North Florida poll.
Donalds leads former Republican congressman David Jolly by 49% to 47% among likely midterm voters, while incumbent Senator Ashley Moody is ahead of Angie Nixon by 49% to 45%.
The survey of 1,471 voters was conducted by UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab between October 12 and 19. Its margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.81 percentage points, putting the governor’s race within the poll’s margin. ([static1.squarespace.com](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/6994d571bce3436c60d86870/t/6ad8a5ec13c20404a1f8052b/1792583148294/UNF%2BPORL%2BFALL%2BStatewide%2B2026%2BFLLV%2B-%2BPress%2BRelease%2B1021%2BEMBARGO.pdf))
The findings mark a clear narrowing since UNF’s July poll, when Donalds held a five-point advantage and Moody led by eight points. Independent voters now favour Jolly over Donalds by 16 points, while Nixon holds a 15-point lead among independents in the Senate contest.
Florida governor race within polling margin
UNF’s faculty director, Dr Sean Freeder, said the governor’s contest was comparable in competitiveness to the 2018 race between Andrew Gillum and Ron DeSantis, which was decided by less than one percentage point.
He said the latest figures suggested either candidate could win, pointing to national political conditions and President Donald Trump’s weak approval ratings as factors that could influence the 2026 midterm elections.
The poll found Jolly narrowly ahead on trust over data centres and the cost of living. Donalds had an advantage on property insurance, an issue of particular importance in Florida.
Donalds was supported by 49% of respondents, compared with 47% for Jolly, while 4% remained undecided. The poll also found Donalds receiving only 10% support among Black voters, with Moody on 9% in the Senate race. ([static1.squarespace.com](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/6994d571bce3436c60d86870/t/6ad8a5ec13c20404a1f8052b/1792583148294/UNF%2BPORL%2BFALL%2BStatewide%2B2026%2BFLLV%2B-%2BPress%2BRelease%2B1021%2BEMBARGO.pdf))
Senate contest shaped by competing campaign messages
Republican attacks focusing on Nixon’s links to the Democratic Socialists of America made 25% of respondents less likely to support her, while 12% said the message made them more likely to vote for her. A majority, 55%, said it had no effect.
Democratic messaging about a grand jury report concerning the Hope Florida programme had a negative effect on Moody’s support among 30% of respondents. The impact was greater among independents, with 38% saying the issue made them less likely to vote for her.
Despite the competing attacks, most voters said the messages had not altered their choice. Freeder said Republicans’ prospects would depend partly on whether they could match Democrats in turnout and enthusiasm.
The poll also found that 50% of respondents supported Amendment 3, which would expand Florida’s homestead property tax exemption and alter assessment rules for non-homestead properties. The measure requires 60% approval, leaving it 10 points short of the threshold, while 14% were undecided. ([static1.squarespace.com](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/6994d571bce3436c60d86870/t/6ad8a5ec13c20404a1f8052b/1792583148294/UNF%2BPORL%2BFALL%2BStatewide%2B2026%2BFLLV%2B-%2BPress%2BRelease%2B1021%2BEMBARGO.pdf))
Turnout is expected to be decisive in both major races. UNF said its sample was drawn from the Florida voter file, with respondents screened for likely participation in the 2026 midterms and results weighted to reflect the state’s electorate.
Election Day is November 3, with early voting already under way. ([fox35orlando.com](https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/florida-governor-u-s-senate-races-tighten-latest-poll-from-unf))
