One Nation’s proposed migration cuts could cost Australia billions of dollars a year, damage regional communities and remove hundreds of thousands of workers from industries already facing labour shortages, economists have warned.
Pauline Hanson’s plan would seek to produce net-negative migration for three years before establishing a long-term annual intake of 130,000 people.
The most significant reductions would target international education. The party has proposed cutting international student visas from 590,000 to 350,000, while reducing temporary graduate visas from 230,000 to 40,000.
Together, the measures would mean 430,000 fewer student arrivals, a reduction of 55 per cent.
International student cuts could cost billions
International education contributed about $54 billion to the Australian economy last year, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, making it the country’s fourth-largest export contributor behind iron ore, coal and gas.
About $24 billion came from tuition fees, with a further $30 billion generated through taxes, housing, food and services. The proposed cuts to the sector could therefore cost Australia an estimated $30 billion a year in lost revenue.
Economists cited in the analysis said the impact could send the economy into a deep recession, forcing businesses to close, harming local communities and putting tens of thousands of Australians out of work and their homes.
Hanson and Barnaby Joyce have rejected that assessment. “Do you trust these economists? What they come out and say? Because I don’t,” Hanson said. “What I’m doing is implementing the will of the people.”
However, the proposed changes would also have consequences for sectors that rely heavily on international students and graduates to fill jobs.
Lyn Tran, a professor at Deakin University’s School of Education, said 88 per cent of international graduate students worked in industries including information technology, health, aged care, retail and hospitality.
Among international undergraduates, 64 per cent work, mainly in hospitality, retail, cleaning and residential care.
The proposed visa reductions could remove 354,000 international students from the workforce, including in aged care and other industries seeking more workers rather than fewer.
Family reunion visas linked to international students would also be affected. The visas cover dependent spouses, de facto partners, children and some parents, and account for about 74,000 people, or roughly a third of the total family reunion cohort.
Some of those visa holders also work in hospitality, health and care. The One Nation proposal would scrap the visas, while the Australian Government would severely restrict them.
South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas highlighted the potential impact on aged care during his recent election campaign, asking: “Who’s going to feed you and bathe you and wipe your bum when you’re 90?”
Hanson has dismissed criticism of her proposals as “smoke and mirrors” and accused Labor of misleading the public to conceal an agenda aimed at bringing in more migrants who would be likely to support the party at elections.
The scale of the proposed changes has prompted concern that a rapid reduction in migration could leave lasting economic and social damage, particularly in regional communities dependent on international students and the workers they provide.
