One Nation support has fallen from its June peak, while voters have increasingly blamed Anthony Albanese’s federal Labor government for the cost-of-living squeeze, according to the latest Resolve Political Monitor.
Pauline Hanson’s party recorded a primary vote of 25 per cent, down two percentage points over the past month and four points since June. Hanson’s ratings for both performance and likeability also declined, despite her remaining ahead of the major party leaders on several measures.
Labor’s primary vote rose by one point to 29 per cent, while the Coalition fell by one point to 23 per cent. All three movements were within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.
Cost-of-living pressures continue to weigh heavily on the government. Some 46 per cent of voters said federal Labor bore primary responsibility for the economic strain, up six points since March.
That was 20 points higher than the proportion blaming international factors, including the wars in Iran and Ukraine. The figure blaming global pressures rose by nine points over the same period, while only 4 per cent attributed the difficulties primarily to the Reserve Bank, which raised interest rates for the fourth time this year at the end of September.
Resolve Political Monitor pollster Jim Reed said housing costs were causing less damage than previously, but other pressures were renewing voters’ concerns.
“High fuel prices, rate increase and credit card fees are all stoking renewed cost-of-living concerns,” Reed said. “Voters appreciate there are global pressures in some of this, but government is seen to be hindering rather than helping.”
Pauline Hanson’s ratings fall
Hanson’s performance was rated good or very good by 45 per cent of respondents, down two points in a month. The share rating her performance poor or very poor rose by four points to 41 per cent, producing a six-point fall in her net rating outside the poll’s margin of error.
Her net likeability score dropped from plus seven to zero. By comparison, Angus Taylor’s net likeability rating fell two points to eight, while Albanese’s improved by one point to minus 15.
Hanson still led the two major party leaders on performance ratings. Albanese was rated good or very good by 36 per cent, while 54 per cent judged his performance poor or very poor. Both figures rose by one point, indicating that opinions of the prime minister remain firmly established, with only 9 per cent undecided.
Taylor’s performance was rated good or very good by 41 per cent, up two points, although the proportion giving him a poor or very poor rating increased by four points to 34 per cent.
Albanese nevertheless strengthened his lead as voters’ preferred political leader, rising three points to 32 per cent. Hanson gained one point to 26 per cent, while Taylor increased by one point to 22 per cent.
Reed suggested Hanson’s weaker showing could reflect a quieter period for One Nation, which he said benefited from controversy and publicity.
“We simply haven’t seen them as much lately,” he said.
Expectations about the next election also shifted. The proportion of voters who thought One Nation would win fell eight points to 20 per cent. Those expecting a Labor victory fell one point to 32 per cent, while 20 per cent expected the Coalition to prevail, up two points.
Greens leadership change attracts limited attention
The Greens rose one point to 12 per cent in the first full Resolve poll since David Shoebridge became federal leader. However, most of the 2,250 voters surveyed were unaware the party had changed leaders.
Only 36 per cent of Greens voters knew Shoebridge had replaced Larissa Waters, who stepped down for health reasons. Awareness was 42 per cent among Labor voters and 44 per cent among both One Nation and Coalition supporters. Across all voters, it stood at 40 per cent.
The leadership change made no difference to 70 per cent of respondents. Thirteen per cent said it made them more likely to vote Greens, while 17 per cent said it made them less likely.
Waters had a net likeability score of plus five, compared with minus three for Shoebridge. The new leader was nevertheless better known: 55 per cent of voters were familiar with him, compared with 50 per cent who were familiar with Waters after nearly 18 months as leader.
The latest findings came as Hanson and Taylor addressed the Conservative Political Action Conference in Brisbane before parliament’s return.
Hanson described Taylor as a “smarmy management consultant” but said One Nation would work with the Coalition to remove Labor from office at the next election.
Taylor acknowledged what he regarded as mistakes by the former Morrison government, including spending during the Covid pandemic, committing to net zero and allowing immigration numbers to increase, particularly through student and bridging visas.
