Sir Keir Starmer is confronting the most serious electoral verdict of his premiership after Welsh Labour suffered what its own outgoing leader described as a “catastrophic” defeat, ending more than a century of dominance in Wales and triggering the on-the-spot resignation of First Minister Eluned Morgan.
Baroness Morgan stunned the Welsh political establishment on Friday afternoon when she lost her seat in Ceredigion Penfro and immediately stood down as leader of Welsh Labour. Speaking from the stage at her count, she told the room that her party would need to “take a really hard look at itself” and acknowledged the result “ends a century of Labour winning in Wales”.
According to ITV Cymru Wales, Baroness Morgan’s defeat marks the first time in UK history that a serving head of government has lost their seat in a national election. She finished a distant fourth in her constituency, polling just 6,495 votes — only 170 ahead of the Green Party — as Plaid Cymru swept up 31,943 votes to take three of the constituency’s six seats. Reform UK took two and the Conservatives one. Labour was shut out entirely.
The collapse extended far beyond a single contest. The BBC has forecast Plaid Cymru, led by Rhun ap Iorwerth, to emerge as the largest party in the expanded 96-seat Senedd, with between 41 and 46 seats — short of the 49 needed for an overall majority. Reform UK is projected to finish second on between 32 and 34, with Welsh Labour reduced from 30 members to around ten, according to party sources cited by ITV. It is the first Senedd election held under a new proportional voting system, with turnout reaching 51.7 per cent — a historic high in Wales.
Speaking after his own re-election in Bangor Conwy Môn, Mr ap Iorwerth said it had “become clear that Wales has demanded that change of leadership”, adding pointedly: “Plaid Cymru is ready to serve.”
In her resignation speech, Baroness Morgan congratulated Plaid on what she called their “momentous success” and acknowledged the gains made by Reform UK, telling colleagues that the party needed to “heed the anger, not feed the anger”. She did not, however, spare the prime minister, calling on the UK Labour government to “change course” and “go back to being the party of the working class”. The election, she added, had been about Wales, but Welsh Labour had been “rejected” by voters.
Sir Keir paid tribute to Baroness Morgan as a “formidable first minister and tireless champion for Wales”, thanking her for more than 30 years of public service. The praise did little, however, to soothe nerves on his own benches at Westminster.
The picture in England has been almost as bleak. Reform UK seized control of Sunderland City Council from Labour, ending more than 50 years of Labour rule, and gained 45 of 49 seats in Thurrock to take the council outright. The Conservatives lost West Sussex and saw their majority on Norfolk County Council disappear. Labour also lost Worthing.
Where Reform did not surge, others did. The Liberal Democrats took control of Stockport and Portsmouth, and party leader Sir Ed Davey told supporters in Guildford that the Lib Dems were now “the only non-populist party left standing”, positioning the party as a refuge for voters loyal to “British values of decency, tolerance, respect of the rule of law”. The Green Party, meanwhile, took control of Norwich Council — its first gain of the night — adding six councillors to give it 21 seats and an overall majority on the 39-member authority.
In Scotland, the SNP is forecast to remain the largest party at Holyrood with between 60 and 63 constituency seats, but well short of an overall majority. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar conceded defeat after only a dozen seats had been declared, telling reporters at the Glasgow count: “We made an argument for change and ultimately, it’s an argument we lost.” Mr Sarwar reiterated his earlier call this year for the prime minister to consider his position.
The Scottish Greens delivered two of the most striking individual results of the night, capturing Edinburgh Central and Glasgow Southside from the SNP. The latter is a seat once held by former first minister Nicola Sturgeon and saw a 36.3-point swing to the Greens. In Edinburgh Central, the Greens climbed by 29.3 points, pushing the SNP into third place behind Labour.
Northern Ireland’s First Minister Michelle O’Neill of Sinn Féin said the early returns suggested voters in Scotland and Wales were “tired of the shackles of Westminster”, noting common ground with the SNP and Plaid Cymru on what she called “national self-determination”. Northern Ireland’s Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly, of the DUP, agreed there was a desire for change, but said it did not extend to “the constitutional question”.
For Sir Keir, the most uncomfortable reading came not from rival parties but from the Labour benches themselves. Louise Haigh, an MP seen as close to Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, told BBC Look North that Sir Keir’s unpopularity had come up “on nearly every doorstep”. Although she warned the party against a “messy, internal contest”, she said the government had to “listen and respond” to what voters had said, adding that “unless they deliver that urgent and significant change, it’s clear the prime minister cannot lead us into another election.”
Other MPs were less restrained in private. According to BBC political correspondent Iain Watson, one Labour MP not normally critical of the leadership concluded simply that voters “don’t really hate Labour… they hate him.” Another, on the left of the party, said the message coming back from Yorkshire was “it’s curtains for Keir.” A senior Welsh Labour figure was reported as telling the BBC: “Everyone in Wales is saying this is all Starmer’s fault.” His Tuesday morning insistence that he would not “walk away from the job” had, the same source said, “gone down very, very badly”.
The so-called “red wall” group of Labour MPs — concentrated in seats where Reform is the principal challenger — is understood to be planning to meet on Wednesday to discuss next steps. Allies of Sir Keir have indicated that he intends to “hunker down” and resist any move against him, while some MPs argue that a leadership contest while in government would be more damaging than the status quo.
What is no longer in doubt is the scale of the political earthquake. As BBC Wales political editor Gareth Lewis put it, the symbol of Labour’s defeat may be Eluned Morgan’s lost seat, but the meaning runs deeper. For a party that has dominated Welsh politics since 1922, the collapse falls into the category of “things you thought you’d never see in your life.”
