Black Friday travel deals are unlikely to deliver major savings this year, with higher airfares and hotel prices meaning a discounted holiday booking may cost no less than last year’s full-price trip.
Black Friday falls on November 27, followed by Cyber Monday on November 30 and Travel Tuesday on December 1. Airlines, hotels and cruise lines are expected to promote offers across the three shopping days, but rising costs have pushed up the prices from which discounts are being taken.
Holiday flights are at their most expensive in a decade
Domestic return flights for Thanksgiving are averaging $402, up 31% on 2025, while Christmas fares have risen 23% to an average of $452, according to Hopper’s 2026 Holiday Travel Index.
Hopper expects this to be the most expensive holiday travel season in a decade. Higher jet fuel costs are a major factor, with fuel the second-largest expense for most airlines after labour.
Delta said its jet fuel costs had risen by 60%, an increase of $1.6 billion from a year earlier. Chief executive Ed Bastian said in July that the airline expected to pass close to 100% of the higher costs on to customers during the third quarter, while its revenue per available seat mile increased by 15%.
“The market has accepted these price points,” Mr Bastian said on an earnings call. He added: “Hopefully, we will see fuel recede into the next year at some point, and that’s when I think you’ll see the real earnings power of this franchise be amplified.”
American, United and Southwest have also reduced less profitable routes, tightening capacity as demand reaches its seasonal peak. US airfares were up 22.4% year on year in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Hotel discounts may only restore last year’s prices
Hotel prices are showing a similar split. Domestic Thanksgiving rooms are averaging about $170 a night, roughly level with last year, while Christmas accommodation has reached an average of $197 a night, an 18% increase.
Hopper expects prices to continue rising and availability to shrink as the holidays approach. That means a promotional rate may simply return a room to the price it carried a year earlier.
For example, a 15% Black Friday reduction on a Christmas hotel room this year would cost about $167 a night — close to the average price of a Christmas room last year.
Travel Tuesday deals are often packages
DaShawna Carpenter, owner of Skyy Travel Mavens, said Black Friday had become less compelling for holidaymakers, with some prices inflated before being presented as discounts.
“Black Friday is definitely becoming weaker,” she said. “While I think you can genuinely find legitimate savings, I have found that prices are sometimes inflated to appear cheaper during the sale periods. So it’s more of a marketing campaign than anything, especially for travel.”
Ms Carpenter said Travel Tuesday generally offered the strongest of the three sales, but warned that many promotions were attached to packages rather than flights alone.
“Most of the deals are attached to packages rather than flights alone, so it’s hard to say whether there are huge fare deals or not,” she said.
Package prices combine flights, accommodation and extras, making it harder to identify the cost of the airfare. Even where a flight discount applies, taxes, fuel-related charges and other fees may remain unchanged.
“A traveller has to be knowledgeable in what the fare normally costs to really understand the discounts and what they are comparing it to,” Ms Carpenter said.
When to book holiday travel
November and December have traditionally been quieter booking months, and Ms Carpenter said discount-day promotions helped travel companies fill that period with bookings for later in the year.
She said missing the advertised sales would not necessarily mean missing the chance to save. “If you don’t buy on any of these marketed ‘discount days,’ there will definitely be other chances to catch a discount,” she said.
Ms Carpenter said travellers remained committed to taking holidays, even when household budgets were under pressure. She also pointed to buy now, pay later services including Klarna, Afterpay and Affirm as making travel more accessible to price-sensitive customers.
Hopper had advised booking holiday flights and hotels before Halloween and expects prices to keep increasing as the dates draw closer. Waiting for a sale may therefore work against the broader pricing trend.
Return fares for the Sunday after Thanksgiving can exceed $600, Hopper said, while travelling on Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday or Cyber Monday is cheaper. For some travellers, the most effective Black Friday travel saving may simply be choosing to fly on the day itself.
