Early 2026 midterm election exit polls point to a sharp warning for President Trump, whose approval rating stands at 38% – the lowest recorded for a president in a midterm election, according to the initial figures.
The rating is below Mr Trump’s position during his first term and lower than George W Bush’s approval rating in 2006, when Republicans lost control of both chambers of Congress.
Trump emerges as a central factor in House votes
The president appears to be a significant influence on the House vote, with roughly six in 10 voters saying Mr Trump was a factor in their decision.
That influence is particularly evident among Democratic voters, who are overwhelmingly motivated by opposition to the president. Republican voters, by contrast, are less likely to say their vote is primarily intended to support him than they were in 2018.
The divide is especially marked within the Republican coalition. Most MAGA Republicans say their vote is intended to support Mr Trump, while most Republicans outside that group say the president is not a factor in their decision.
Voters express growing dissatisfaction with the country’s direction
The exit polls also show a deeply negative mood among the electorate, with about three-quarters of voters at least dissatisfied with the direction of the country.
More voters say they are angry about the way things are going than in 2024, as concerns about the economy persist. Democratic voters are particularly likely to describe themselves as angry.
Views of the economy have also deteriorated. More voters hold negative opinions of its condition than they did two years ago, with sentiment now closer to the pattern seen in the 2022 midterms, when the party in power lost seats.
The economy and confidence in Mr Trump’s ability to improve it helped drive his victory in 2024. The early exit poll figures suggest voters do not feel more positive about economic conditions today.
