The Florida governor’s race has tightened to a near dead heat, with Republican Byron Donalds holding a two-point lead over Democrat David Jolly in a new poll taken less than two weeks before the election.
The University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab found that 49% of likely voters backed Mr Donalds, compared with 47% for Mr Jolly. The remaining 4% were undecided, while the poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 2.81 percentage points, leaving the contest statistically too close to call. ([unfporl.org](https://www.unfporl.org/))
The survey questioned 1,471 likely Florida midterm voters between 12 and 19 October. It represents a marked shift from UNF’s July poll, when Mr Donalds led by five points.
Florida governor race within margin of error
Dr Sean Freeder, director of the university’s Public Opinion Research Lab, said the result pointed to a competitive contest in which either candidate could win.
“Though Donalds enjoys a slight advantage, these numbers suggest a competitive gubernatorial race,” he said. “Given the margin of error, a win by either candidate would be unsurprising.”
Mr Jolly appears to be drawing support beyond the Democratic base. The poll found that 11% of registered Republicans intended to vote for him, while 5% of registered Democrats backed Mr Donalds. Among independent and other unaffiliated voters, Mr Jolly led by 55% to 38%; a separate summary of the findings put his advantage among independents at 16 points. ([gmg-wjxt-prod.cdn.arcpublishing.com](https://gmg-wjxt-prod.cdn.arcpublishing.com/news/local/2026/10/21/unf-poll-shows-tight-florida-governor-senate-races/))
The candidates were also closely matched on the issues most prominent in the campaign. Mr Jolly held a narrow advantage on affordability and data centres, while Mr Donalds was trusted more on property insurance.
On the cost of living, 43% said they trusted Mr Jolly more and 42% chose Mr Donalds. The Republican led on property insurance by 43% to 38%, while Mr Jolly was ahead on data centres by 41% to 37%.
Mr Jolly has called for a pause on new data-centre projects in Florida and criticised Mr Donalds over support from the industry. Mr Donalds has sought to depict his opponent, a former Republican congressman, as a liberal who would appoint Democrats from further left of the political spectrum.
Mr Donalds retains an advantage in the intensity of his support. Some 77% of his backers said they strongly supported him, compared with 67% of Mr Jolly’s supporters.
National Democrats step up support for David Jolly
The narrowing contest has prompted increased national attention. The Democratic Governors Association has committed $1 million to Mr Jolly’s campaign, while former president Bill Clinton appeared with him at an interfaith event in Hollywood, Florida, in what was reported as his first campaign stop of the 2026 midterm elections. ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/a298dcb9327bbad29c0bcc9e61955edb?utm_source=openai))
Mr Jolly had publicly urged national Democrats to provide more financial support as he sought to close the gap with Mr Donalds, who has held a substantial fundraising advantage.
With Election Day on 3 November, Dr Freeder said turnout was likely to determine the outcome. Strong Democratic participation could give Mr Jolly the edge, while higher-than-expected Republican enthusiasm could provide Mr Donalds with a more comfortable victory.
