US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has imposed a ban on Defence Department personnel using non-public information to bet on military operations, including through prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
The order, issued in a 20 October memorandum to senior Pentagon leaders and combatant commanders, covers both classified and unclassified information. It warns that betting activity could reveal sensitive details about American military movements to foreign adversaries.
“Make no mistake why this matters. Our enemies watch movements in these markets,” Mr Hegseth wrote. “When an American Service member, intelligence professional, or other Department civilian engages in a financial transaction on a military outcome, they create a signal.”
The memorandum says foreign intelligence services could examine betting activity to anticipate US movements, targets and the timing of operations.
Those who breach the directive could face administrative, disciplinary or criminal action under federal law or the Uniform Code of Military Justice, which governs the US military.
The policy follows scrutiny of service members taking part in military-related prediction markets. In April, a US Special Forces soldier involved in the operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro was arrested after allegedly betting on Mr Maduro’s removal from office before the raid became public.
Federal investigators believe Army Master Sgt Gannon Ken Van Dyke placed more than 33,000 dollars in bets on Polymarket within hours of President Donald Trump announcing in January that Mr Maduro had been captured. The bets produced winnings of more than 409,000 dollars, investigators allege.
Mr Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty in federal court in New York.
