Victoria’s rising crime rates have become a central threat to Labor’s 12-year grip on power, with aggravated burglaries, car thefts and assaults reaching decade highs across large parts of Melbourne and regional Victoria.
The figures come as voters prepare to decide on November 28 whether to remove the state government, with crime and policing now the second most important issue in the election campaign, according to the Resolve Political Monitor.
Crime reached a record level in 2025, while Labor’s primary vote weakened. In more than 60 per cent of Melbourne council areas and more than 40 per cent of regional municipalities, rates of at least one major offence have reached their highest point in the past decade during the past two years.
The political pressure has forced three Labor premiers to repeatedly shift between progressive justice policies and tougher measures designed to reassure voters. The result has been a series of reversals on bail, youth crime, policing and the age of criminal responsibility.
Victoria crime rates put bail laws under renewed scrutiny
Labor’s difficulties began with the aftermath of the 2017 Bourke Street attack, when James Gargasoulas drove a stolen car into pedestrians in Melbourne’s central business district, killing six people. He was on bail at the time.
The government led by Daniel Andrews responded by introducing a reverse-onus bail test. Suspected offenders, rather than prosecutors, had to provide a compelling reason why they should be released. Mr Andrews described the system as the toughest bail regime in the country.
The policy contributed to a sharp rise in the remand population. The proportion of prisoners held on remand increased from 30.9 per cent in 2017 to 44.4 per cent in 2022, with women and Indigenous Victorians disproportionately affected.
The consequences were highlighted by the death in custody of Gunditjmara woman Veronica Nelson in 2020. Ms Nelson had been remanded over a minor shoplifting offence and died while suffering opioid withdrawal.
At the inquest into her death, Coroner Simon McGregor described the bail provisions as a “complete, unmitigated disaster”. The government subsequently rolled back the laws, with then-attorney general Jaclyn Symes acknowledging that the system had “cast the net too wide”.
But the direction changed again in March 2025, when Jacinta Allan’s government removed the requirement for remand to be treated as a last resort in some cases. It also created a specific offence for committing an indictable crime while on bail.
The changes followed intense public concern over home invasions and car thefts in Melbourne. Residential aggravated burglaries reached their highest level of the decade in 20 of the 32 local government areas that make up metropolitan Melbourne.
Those reforms were again promoted as the strongest of their kind. Since then, the proportion of prisoners held on remand has risen to 40.8 per cent, while the number of children in detention has also increased.
Greg Barns, a barrister and spokesman for the Australian Lawyers Alliance, said the government had first begun to dismantle “those appalling laws” before reversing direction.
Natalia Antolak-Saper, a Monash University professor who has written about prisons and criminal justice policy, said the 2025 laws were tougher than the changes introduced in 2018. She said there was evidence their operation was “both discriminatory and problematic”.
Labor has defended its approach, saying it is focused on violent offending and high-harm crimes rather than vulnerable groups. Police Minister Paul Edbrooke said: “Victorians want to feel safe – only Labor will listen and act on what the community wants.”
Since becoming premier in July, Ben Carroll has repeatedly emphasised that more people are going to prison. “It is nonsense that incarceration brings people out worse,” he said this month. “Incarceration gives them the opportunity to get a trade, get an education and break up their links [to crime].”
The Coalition has continued to attack Labor’s record. Opposition police and corrections spokesman Brad Battin said: “After 12 years of Labor, police numbers are down, crime is up and Victorians are living in fear.”
Youth crime becomes an election flashpoint
Youth offending first became a major political problem for Labor after the 2016 Moomba riot, when hundreds of boys fought in Melbourne’s CBD. The incident quickly became tied to the so-called “African gangs” debate before the 2018 election.
The government responded with a new youth detention centre, longer sentences for young offenders and $2 billion for community safety measures, including the recruitment of 3100 police officers. Labor was comfortably re-elected, while a Liberal review later found that voters had dismissed the Coalition’s focus on African gangs as a political tactic.
After the pandemic, however, youth crime returned to the centre of political debate as home invasions and car thefts increased. Labor had previously supported raising the age of criminal responsibility, first to 12 and then to 14 by 2027.
An expert panel appointed in 2023 recommended strongly in favour of raising the age. Its report, completed in September 2024, has never been released after the government indicated that it was not needed.
The policy became increasingly difficult to defend as high-profile youth violence dominated the news. The fatal stabbings of 12-year-old Chol Achiek and 15-year-old Dau Akueng in Melbourne’s outer west were among the incidents that intensified pressure on the government.
After the tougher bail laws were announced, Labor introduced its Adult Time for Violent Crime measures. Ms Allan said the laws would mean more young violent offenders going to prison and facing serious consequences.
Yet the rate of non-family-violence assaults, car thefts and shop thefts in Greater Melbourne reached decade highs during Ms Allan’s leadership. Regional Victoria recorded its highest rates of several offences, including aggravated robberies.
Swinburne University criminologist Joel McGregor said punitive measures could improve immediate perceptions of safety without increasing safety over the longer term. “Coming up to an election, people want to see action, and action happens via these tough-on-crime policies,” he said.
When asked what research had guided the government’s laws, Mr Edbrooke did not cite specific evidence. He said Labor made no apologies for its approach, adding: “It’s common sense when someone, no matter what their age, is accused of doing something violent, and we take them off the street and put them in jail.”
Family violence progress questioned
Labor came to office promising to make family violence a central law-and-order priority. In 2014, Mr Andrews pledged a royal commission into the issue, describing violence in the home as the state’s biggest law-and-order problem.
The commission produced 227 recommendations and prompted more than $4 billion in spending on prevention programmes, crisis accommodation and support services. Police attitudes also shifted, with greater emphasis placed on investigating family violence and supporting victims.
But family violence assaults rose after the commission and peaked during the pandemic. Rates of harassment, stalking and threatening behaviour have not declined, while breaches of family violence intervention orders are 41 per cent higher than in 2017.
Victoria Police made 16,500 arrests for family violence offences in the year to June. Officers now attend a family violence incident every five minutes across the state.
Becky Batagol, a Monash University associate law professor who worked as a research consultant for the royal commission, said Victoria had built strong foundations but that government funding had fallen since the pandemic. Demand for services and crisis accommodation remained overwhelming, she said.
“I’m an optimist by nature, but I find working long term in family violence is very wearing because it seems like despite the progress, the problem doesn’t get better,” Ms Batagol said. “We’ve got great foundations in Victoria, but we need to keep going, and I feel like the momentum is lost.”
Attorney-General Sonya Kilkenny said Labor had implemented all 227 recommendations and changed the way family violence was discussed, reported and addressed.
Police recruitment falls short of promise
Police numbers have added another dimension to the election fight. Labor’s first-term government promised about 3100 additional officers, and the overall force has grown by roughly 2800 since 2015.
However, staffing remains 902.7 full-time officers below the number promised. Chief Commissioner Mike Bush has said the force is still short by about 1550 officers after Covid-related disruptions, vaccine mandates and high attrition.
Mr Carroll has promised to recruit another 1500 officers by 2028 if Labor is re-elected. The opposition has pledged 3000 new officers and the reopening of 40 police stations that do not operate full-time.
Car thefts have reached a decade high in 26 of Melbourne’s 32 council areas. In Collingwood, businessman Nick Turnbull said his Toyota LandCruiser was stolen about 200 metres from a police station and that the response had been lacklustre.
The vehicle was eventually recovered with syringes and traces of methamphetamine inside. “They’re stealing cars at such a rate the police can’t keep up with it,” Mr Turnbull said. “The problem is the government and the courts.”
The Coalition is promising a one-strike bail policy that would automatically remand accused offenders who commit another crime while on bail. Labor, meanwhile, is seeking to persuade voters that its latest crackdown is targeted, necessary and capable of restoring confidence in community safety.
