A Russian military spacecraft may have been rehearsing an attack when it moved to within a short distance of a Western satellite supporting Ukraine, a military space specialist has warned.
Two other Russian-linked spacecraft are now travelling towards the orbital path of another satellite operated by Finnish company ICEYE, raising further concerns about the vulnerability of commercial networks used for military intelligence.
Cosmos 2612 approached ICEYE’s X36 satellite over South America in mid-October. The satellite provides radar imagery to Western governments and militaries, including Ukraine.
Greg Gillinger, a senior space analyst at Integrity ISR and a former US Air Force intelligence officer, said the manoeuvre “looks like an attack rehearsal”. He described it as “the most aggressive posture I’ve seen Russia take in terms of threatening satellites from another nation”.
US Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno said after the incident that Cosmos 2612 had been “intentionally maneuvering dangerously close to a commercial satellite” in conduct “consistent with on-orbit weapons operations”.
Russian satellite approached ICEYE spacecraft
Space-tracking company LeoLabs said Cosmos 2612 had entered “extreme proximity” to X36. Three specialists described the encounter as one of the closest known approaches by a Russian military spacecraft to a commercial satellite in low-altitude orbit.
Analysts said Cosmos 2612 initially positioned itself hundreds of kilometres behind X36 in early October before rapidly closing the distance over several days. It came within a kilometre of the satellite around the middle of the month, with some assessments putting the separation at a few hundred metres or less.
Cosmos 2612 later moved approximately 400 kilometres away, according to Mr Gillinger. The spacecraft is publicly categorised as a servicing and inspection satellite by US space intelligence firm Slingshot Aerospace.
Mr Gillinger said the manoeuvre appeared to test a capability linked to a kinetic attack, arguing that such a close approach would not be necessary for intelligence gathering or electronic interference.
However, Germany’s space commander, Major General Michael Traut, said close approaches could be used for inspection, observation or interference, depending on a spacecraft’s technical capabilities.
“We must therefore consider the entire spectrum of possible effects, ranging from temporarily disrupting a satellite’s operations to permanently disabling it,” he said.
He cautioned that the ability to carry out such manoeuvres was not, by itself, evidence that Russia was preparing or rehearsing an attack. The purpose of the activity could not be established from publicly available orbital data alone.
Two spacecraft described as siblings of Cosmos 2612 are now drifting towards ICEYE’s X37 satellite, Mr Gillinger said. US space-tracking company COMSPOC has also said the pair are becoming increasingly well positioned to approach X37.
Both X36 and X37 are registered in the United States, according to public space-object catalogues.
ICEYE’s head of US operations, Ann Stevens, said X36 “has been and will continue to be a productive satellite”, adding that the company’s radar-imaging constellation was resilient in the event of disruption.
Russia’s Defence Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Moscow has repeatedly warned that commercial Western satellites assisting Ukraine could become legitimate targets for retaliation.
The activity has intensified concern over commercial satellites’ role in military operations. Andrew Turner, a space consultant and retired senior British air force officer, said Russia’s approach to X36 “really elevates the potential of an attack” through either deliberate or inadvertent interaction.
