Renewed US-Iran fighting could extend beyond the battlefield to financial assets, data centres and undersea internet cables, after Tehran threatened retaliation “without any geographical limitations”.
President Donald Trump has said he is considering “another little Epic Fury” after Tuesday’s US midterm elections, while Washington has sent a third aircraft carrier and a Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East.
Allies in the region have been told to prepare for a possible short but intense resumption of hostilities. Iran, meanwhile, has hardened its warnings in an apparent attempt to deter a further US attack.
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said on Saturday that Iran’s response would be “without any geographical limitations” and that its “data bank of targets should be updated so that the armed forces could hit all kinds of financial and non-financial assets”.
The threats have included undersea communications cables and data centres. A foiled attack on a British air base used by US forces has also been attributed to Tehran.
Iran’s cyber capabilities have added to concerns about the potential reach of any renewed conflict. The $6.3 billion cryptocurrency theft at Binance, which has been blamed on North Koreans, has highlighted the vulnerability of digital assets, while the Pentagon is investigating whether hackers targeted freezers at US military bases.
The RAND think tank said hostile Iranian activity “spans the globe”, citing Hezbollah activity in Latin America and reported plots against civilians in Europe.
Analysts at the organisation said the least damaging option would be for the US to maintain its naval blockade rather than launch further attacks, warning that Iran was unlikely to remain confined to one region.
Iran warns of wider retaliation
Diplomatic efforts are continuing through intermediaries, with Washington and Tehran exchanging messages. However, neither side has moved from its initial demands, reducing hopes of a breakthrough in the coming days.
Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the Crisis Group, said Khamenei’s statement was the most significant recent development and pointed to a shift in Tehran’s military strategy.
“This language suggests a further evolution in Iran’s military strategy,” he wrote on Saturday. “Since the beginning of the war, Tehran has increasingly moved away from its traditional emphasis on proportionate response and retaliation toward a more offensive approach aimed at imposing costs on adversaries. The latest statements appear to take this logic a step further.”
Mr Azizi also highlighted remarks by another senior Iranian official suggesting Tehran could launch a pre-emptive strike if preparations for hostile action were confirmed. Khamenei has said Iran would decide when and how any renewed conflict ends.
Mr Azizi said Iran appeared increasingly determined to avoid a repeat of earlier episodes in which negotiations or temporary ceasefires were followed by renewed attacks.
“From Tehran’s perspective, the objective is to make another attack so costly and unpredictable that Washington would have to reconsider the option altogether,” he said.
Iran is still believed to have thousands of missiles and drones capable of causing severe damage across the Persian Gulf. US interceptor stocks have already fallen to critically low levels, while newer Iranian missiles have shown an ability to evade air-defence systems.
Amir Handjani, a board member at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said the region’s energy infrastructure could not absorb another round of fighting after the damage sustained earlier in the war.
US military bases across the Middle East have also suffered heavy damage from Iranian drones and missiles.
“Gulf producers spent five decades persuading the world that their supply could withstand regional wars. Eight months of fighting on two fronts have badly weakened that case. A negotiated end to the war would give the region time to rebuild it,” Mr Handjani wrote.
He added: “Another round, on top of the Saudi-Houthi war, would leave damage to infrastructure and to importers’ confidence that markets are likely to carry for a generation.”
