Philadelphia could see its first accumulating snowfall between late November and December, according to the Farmers’ Almanac’s outlook for the 2026–27 winter season.
The forecast does not identify a specific day, with forecasters warning that temperatures across the region may shift rapidly between mild and wintry conditions. The first event could bring snow, sleet, freezing rain or a mixture of precipitation, depending on the track of any coastal storm.
That uncertainty is expected to be a feature of the winter ahead. The Farmers’ Almanac describes the Northeast as one of the most complicated areas to forecast, with inland locations potentially seeing rounds of heavy, wet snow while communities closer to the coast are more likely to experience rain or mixed conditions.
When will Philadelphia see its first snowfall?
The late-November-to-December window broadly matches the region’s usual timing for its first snow that settles. In Philadelphia itself, however, the city’s urban heat island can make a noticeable difference.
Concrete, asphalt and buildings retain warmth, meaning snow may settle in surrounding suburbs while melting on contact in Center City. A storm that produces a covering in Bucks County or South Jersey could therefore result in little more than wet flakes in the city.
There are also several different definitions of a season’s “first snowfall”. Snowflakes may be observed falling without leaving any lasting cover, while measurable snowfall is generally recorded once at least 0.1 inches has accumulated. A more substantial event is usually considered to be an inch or more.
For its forecast, the Farmers’ Almanac is referring to accumulating or measurable snow rather than the first flakes seen in the air.
The outlook comes as a developing El Niño is expected to influence the winter weather pattern. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said in August that there was more than a 90 per cent chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere’s autumn and winter, although it cautioned that the resulting impacts were not guaranteed.
El Niño can alter the position and strength of storm tracks, but it does not determine whether precipitation will fall as rain or snow in Philadelphia. That will depend on small changes in temperature and the path of individual storms.
As a result, residents may experience quick cold snaps followed by milder spells, with the first proper snowfall difficult to pin down until a weather system is within the shorter-range forecast period.
