Five closely watched contests across the United States will offer early clues about whether President Donald Trump’s standing, economic discontent and divisions within the Democratic Party will shape November’s midterm elections.
The races in Iowa, Texas, Georgia, Michigan and Virginia are among those expected to influence control of Congress and the direction of both parties. The first Tuesday in November will also test whether Republicans can retain support among rural, Latino and military voters, while Democrats seek evidence that their coalition can recover in traditionally difficult territory.
Iowa Senate race tests economic backlash
In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek is challenging Republican Ashley Hinson in a contest that could determine control of the Senate.
Iowa has voted for Mr Trump in each of the past three presidential elections, but Democrats believe rising costs could give them an opening. Farmers and manufacturers have faced pressure from tariffs, while fuel and fertiliser prices have risen sharply amid the war in Iran.
Ms Hinson, a member of the House of Representatives, has defended Mr Trump’s tax cuts and argued that his tariffs were necessary to force trading partners to negotiate. She has also occasionally criticised aspects of his trade policy.
Mr Turek, a state representative, has made the cost of living and the economic difficulties facing farmers central to his campaign. The Democrat’s victory in the primary gave his party a candidate with experience of winning in areas carried by Mr Trump.
The Cook Political Report has moved the race into the most competitive category, while the Republican Senate campaign has committed substantial resources to protecting the seat. A Democratic win would suggest that economic frustration is overcoming Iowa’s long-standing Republican lean; a Republican victory would indicate that voters remain reluctant to break with Mr Trump’s party.
Texas district becomes a test of Republican redistricting
Republicans’ efforts to strengthen their position in the House will be closely examined in Texas’s 28th Congressional District, where Democrat Henry Cuellar faces Republican Tano Tijerina.
The district was redrawn by Republicans in an effort to gain as many as five House seats. Its new boundaries favour Mr Trump by roughly 10 percentage points and increased the Hispanic share of the electorate to about 91 per cent.
Mr Cuellar, a moderate Democrat, is seeking another term after being pardoned by Mr Trump while awaiting trial on bribery-related charges. Mr Tijerina, a county judge, has presented himself as an alternative to an incumbent he says has become too close to Washington.
The contest will show whether Republicans can hold the support Mr Trump made among Latino voters in South Texas in 2024. Concerns over the economy and immigration enforcement have since created signs of weakening Republican support, while Democrats have seen encouraging results in other contests involving Latino voters.
The outcome, alongside races in Texas’s 15th and 34th districts, will help determine whether the Republican redistricting strategy delivers the gains its architects sought.
Georgia asks whether Democrats can win back the South
Georgia’s open governor’s race is another major test for Democrats, who are attempting to rebuild their position across the South.
Former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is the Democratic nominee, while Republican Rick Jackson, a billionaire healthcare executive, emerged from a primary runoff in June. Mr Jackson entered the race late and spent heavily from his personal fortune before securing the Republican nomination.
Georgia has changed sides in each of the past three presidential elections, most recently backing Mr Trump in 2024. Yet it has not elected a Democratic governor since Roy Barnes left office in 2003.
Ms Bottoms, who served in Joe Biden’s administration, would become the first Black woman elected governor in US history if she wins. She has sought to link Mr Jackson to the president, while her Republican opponent has focused on her record as Atlanta mayor and attempted to associate her with Democratic positions on criminal justice.
Mr Jackson’s victory in the Republican runoff confirmed the general-election contest, but the race remains a measure of the strength of both parties. A Democratic win would signal that the party can convert growing support in presidential and Senate contests into statewide executive power.
Michigan contest puts progressive strategy on trial
In Michigan’s seventh congressional district, Republican Tom Barrett faces William Lawrence, a progressive Democrat and co-founder of the youth-led Sunrise Movement.
Mr Barrett flipped the competitive district in 2024 and is now defending a seat that could help decide control of the House. Mr Lawrence won the Democratic primary in August, defeating more moderate rivals and giving progressives a high-profile test in a battleground constituency.
Mr Barrett has highlighted his efforts to limit Mr Trump’s war powers in Iran, while attacking Mr Lawrence’s previous association with the Democratic Socialists of America and past comments that the Democrat has since disavowed or sought to distance himself from.
Mr Lawrence is campaigning against data centres and in favour of universal healthcare. His supporters argue that issues associated with the party’s left wing can mobilise working-class voters in a general election, not only during Democratic primaries.
Republicans, meanwhile, are seeking to use the contest to reinforce their argument that Democrats have moved too far to the left. The Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up, making it one of the clearest tests of whether a progressive candidate can win in swing territory.
Virginia race focuses on military voters and Iran
Two Navy veterans are competing in Virginia’s second congressional district, where the war in Iran has become a central issue for a large military and veteran population.
Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans, a former Navy helicopter pilot, is being challenged by Elaine Luria, the Democrat who held the seat before losing it in 2022. The district includes the world’s largest Navy base and has a high concentration of military personnel and their families.
Ms Luria has made opposition to the war a defining theme of her campaign to regain the seat. Ms Kiggans has repeatedly opposed resolutions intended to limit Mr Trump’s war powers and has dismissed reports of poor conditions aboard the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln.
The Cook Political Report considers the race a toss-up. Its result could provide one of the clearest indications of how service members, veterans and military families view the administration’s handling of the conflict.
Taken together, the five contests offer a snapshot of the wider midterm battle: whether economic pressures can damage Republicans in a state such as Iowa, whether Latino voters remain open to the party in Texas, whether Democrats can break through in the South, whether progressives can prevail in a swing district and how voters tied to the military respond to Mr Trump’s foreign policy.
