Gina Hinojosa is looking to chip away at Greg Abbott’s support in rural Texas as she attempts to repeat the unlikely Democratic breakthrough achieved by Ann Richards in the 1990 governor’s race.
Republican incumbent Abbott remains ahead in the contest, with an Emerson College poll published on Thursday putting him on 49% against 45% for Democratic challenger Hinojosa. Libertarian candidate Pat Dixon was on 1%, while 4% were undecided.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted between 17 and 19 October, shortly before the first week of early voting ended. Texas began early voting on 19 October, with the general election scheduled for 3 November.
Rural voters seen as crucial to Hinojosa’s hopes
Chuck McDonald, who worked on Richards’s campaign, said Hinojosa’s route to victory could depend on reducing the Republican advantage in counties where the party routinely wins by overwhelming margins.
“I think the secret sauce for Gina Hinojosa is gonna be what turned out to be the same for us in 1990, and that’s rural voters,” he said.
McDonald noted that Hinojosa would not need to win strongly Republican areas outright. A significant reduction in the Republican share in parts of West Texas, he said, could be enough to improve the Democrat’s statewide position.
Richards became Texas’s second female governor in 1990 and remains the last Democrat to hold the office. Her campaign capitalised on public anger over political corruption and cronyism, defeating Republican Clayton Williams after a closely watched contest.
Political analysts have warned, however, that the circumstances surrounding Richards’s victory were unusual. Abbott’s standing has been tested by criticism of his record, economic concerns and the political impact of Donald Trump, but the governor continues to benefit from strong Republican loyalty.
Abbott has declined to debate Hinojosa, saying he would rather spend the campaign travelling across the state and meeting voters. “Letting them get to see a Governor for the very first time and there is a large state to cover,” he said.
The governor has also released a series of adverts attacking Hinojosa, including Spanish-language spots. Hinojosa’s campaign has responded with an advert portraying Abbott alongside data-centre developers in what resembles a wedding announcement.
Hinojosa was campaigning in Denton on Friday and was due to visit Dallas, Austin, College Station and Weslaco over the weekend. The race will be decided against the backdrop of a broader Republican winning streak in Texas, which Democrats are attempting to break for the first time in decades.
