Choosing a Melbourne Cup winner remains part science, part instinct, with barriers, weight, silks and historical trends all offering punters potential clues before Tuesday’s race at Flemington.
For those without the time or inclination to study the form, the colour of a jockey’s silks may provide an alternative starting point. Blue has been associated with 40 Melbourne Cup victories, while black has produced 25.
Jamie Melham combined the two colours when she rode Half Yours to victory last year, adding to the significance of a pattern that has long appealed to superstitious racegoers.
Melbourne Cup winner trends in the numbers
Barriers five and 11 share the best record in the race, with nine winners apiece. Barrier five most recently produced a champion in 2024, when Robbie Dolan won on Knight’s Choice after a late scratching moved the pair across from barrier six.
Barrier 11, meanwhile, has not produced a winner since Americain in 2010. Half Yours won from barrier eight last year, while Verry Elleegant ended barrier 18’s long wait in 2021. Barrier seven has not provided a winner since Blackwood in 1924.
Saddlecloth No.4 has the strongest record, with 12 victories. The most recent came when Verry Elleegant won under James McDonald, while No.12 and No.1 have also enjoyed sustained success. No.18 has not been carried to victory since Peter Pan in 1932.
Weight is another commonly used guide. Horses carrying between 51kg and 51.5kg have generally performed well, although 53kg is the most frequent winning weight, accounting for nine victories.
Only Makybe Diva has won while carrying 58kg or more in the past 36 years. Verry Elleegant came close in 2021, carrying 57kg.
The broader record points towards bay horses, who have supplied 13 of the past 16 winners. Only six grey horses have won the race, with Efficient the most recent in 2007.
There are also letters to avoid for anyone relying on a name-based selection: no horse beginning with I, Q, U, X or Y has won the Melbourne Cup.
Female winners remain relatively uncommon. Three fillies and 12 mares have won the race, with Verry Elleegant in 2021 the first mare to do so since Makybe Diva’s three consecutive victories between 2003 and 2005.
Experts assess the Melbourne Cup field
Racing writers Danny Russell and Peter Ryan have taken different approaches to the field while searching for the combination needed to land the trifecta.
Point Of Law has attracted attention after his dominant Geelong Cup performance, but Russell remains cautious because Tuesday’s race will be only the horse’s sixth start and just his second since that victory. He expects the runner to finish in the top 10, but believes the price may be too short.
Ryan has made Trustyourinstinct his leading international selection. He also sees a chance for last year’s runner-up Goodie Two Shoes, while Russell has identified Sons And Lovers as a possible placegetter.
Ciaron Maher’s seven-runner team has proved difficult to separate. Middle Earth, Mr Monaco and Juja Kibo have all been considered, with Middle Earth Russell’s preferred pick and Juja Kibo Ryan’s choice.
Russell is also interested in Shockletz, who is set to carry 51kg, although the horse’s rider had yet to be confirmed after Harry Coffey’s fall on Saturday. Ryan has included Soul Of Spain as an outsider, citing the runner’s second place in the Sydney Cup and Tommy Berry’s return to the saddle.
Russell’s wider combination includes Zahrann, Lizlyar and Asterix. His trifecta selections place numbers 2, 4 and 20 in the first three positions, with numbers 2, 4, 9, 12, 15, 16, 18, 19, 20 and 24 included for third.
Ryan’s first three are numbers 4, 11 and 22. His selections for the second and third places include numbers 1, 4, 11, 14, 16 and 22.
