Brent crude stood at $96.90 (£76.60) a barrel at 9am Eastern Time on Friday, September 4, after falling $2.48 from the previous morning. Despite the daily decline, the oil price remains almost 11% higher than a month ago and 43.98% above its level a year earlier.
The latest move came as traders assessed renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran, which have intensified concerns about potential disruption to Middle Eastern supplies. Brent was on course for a weekly gain of more than 6%, while West Texas Intermediate, the main US benchmark, was also set for its strongest weekly performance since July. ([ca.marketscreener.com](https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/oil-set-for-steepest-weekly-gain-since-mid-july-fuelled-by-us-iran-clashes-ce785bdadc8af027))
Why the oil price remains under pressure
Oil markets can move sharply when investors reassess the balance between supply and demand. Geopolitical conflict, threats to shipping routes, sanctions, production decisions by Opec+, economic growth and fears of recession can all change expectations within hours.
The Strait of Hormuz has been a particular focus for traders. Reuters reported that only four commodity vessels passed through the waterway on Thursday, compared with a recent 10-day average of about 15, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding regional oil flows. ([ca.marketscreener.com](https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/oil-set-for-steepest-weekly-gain-since-mid-july-fuelled-by-us-iran-clashes-ce785bdadc8af027))
Brent crude is widely used as the global reference price because it reflects much of the oil traded internationally. West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, is more closely associated with the North American market, and the two benchmarks can trade at different prices because of variations in quality, location, transport costs and local supply.
There is no reliable way to forecast the precise direction of oil prices. A de-escalation in the Middle East or an increase in available supplies could push prices lower, while further disruption to production or shipping could send them higher.
What higher crude prices mean for motorists
Crude oil is a major component of the cost of petrol and diesel, but pump prices also reflect refining, transport, taxes and retailer margins. As a result, fuel prices do not always move by the same amount or at the same speed as crude.
The US Energy Information Administration said on Friday that higher crude prices and elevated refining margins were contributing to increased petrol prices. It reported that gasoline refining margins in New York Harbor had averaged about $1 a gallon more since May than during the same period in 2025, amid tight global supplies of the fuel. ([eia.gov](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/index.php/images/2026.09.04/main.svg))
When crude rises quickly, petrol prices can respond rapidly, while falls often take longer to reach forecourts — a pattern sometimes described as “rockets and feathers”. Higher fuel costs can also feed into inflation by increasing the expense of transporting goods and operating businesses.
The United States could draw on its Strategic Petroleum Reserve during a serious supply shock. The stockpile is intended primarily as an emergency energy-security measure, however, and would provide temporary relief rather than a lasting solution to a prolonged disruption.
Oil prices have a record of sharp swings
Brent has repeatedly risen during wars, export restrictions and production cuts, before falling when demand weakened or supplies became excessive. Prices plunged below $20 a barrel during the global Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020, after demand collapsed, while the financial crisis in 2008 brought another steep reversal following an earlier surge.
The latest figures underline the market’s volatility: Brent is down sharply from the previous day’s level, but remains close to $100 a barrel and substantially higher than it was in September 2025. The immediate direction will depend largely on developments in the US-Iran conflict, the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and whether global supplies can keep pace with demand.
