New Hampshire’s Senate contest has emerged as one of the most closely watched races of the 2026 midterm elections, after Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John E. Sununu secured their parties’ nominations for the seat being vacated by Jeanne Shaheen.
The result sets up a battle between a four-term congressman seeking promotion and a former senator attempting to return to Capitol Hill, with Republicans hoping the Sununu family name can help them overturn a Democratic advantage in the Granite State.
Pappas defeated Karishma Manzur and three other candidates for the Democratic nomination. Manzur, a scientist and democratic socialist, had attracted support from the Democratic Socialists of America and gained ground in the closing weeks of the primary.
That result leaves Pappas with the task of rebuilding a coalition on the left before the general election on November 3. Some of Manzur’s supporters may be reluctant to back a candidate who has accepted super PAC money and taken more centrist positions.
Sununu, meanwhile, prevailed in a Republican field that included Scott Brown, the former Massachusetts senator who later served as Donald Trump’s ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa.
The Republican nominee represented New Hampshire in the US House for six years before serving one term in the Senate from 2003 to 2009. He was defeated by Shaheen in 2008 and has spent the years since leaving elected politics in the private sector.
His campaign has focused on the cost of housing, healthcare and energy, as well as what he describes as the need for stronger accountability in Washington. He has also received Trump’s backing, giving him an important advantage in a Republican primary where loyalty to the president remains a central issue.
New Hampshire Senate race is rated Lean Democratic
The contest is nevertheless expected to be competitive. The Cook Political Report rates the open seat as “Lean Democratic”, while polling by the University of New Hampshire has shown Pappas and Sununu within striking distance of one another, with a sizeable share of voters yet to decide.
Pappas enters the general election with a significant fundraising advantage. The Associated Press reported that he had raised roughly twice as much as Sununu and Brown combined, while also outpacing his Democratic primary opponents.
The congressman first defeated Karoline Leavitt in 2022, when she was 25 and later went on to become Trump’s White House press secretary. He is now seeking to move from the House to the Senate in a state where Democrats have held the seat for 16 years.
Sununu’s candidacy carries considerable political history. His father, John H. Sununu, served as New Hampshire governor in the 1980s before becoming chief of staff to President George HW Bush, while his brother Chris Sununu was governor from 2017 to 2025.
Republicans are also benefiting from the popularity of Governor Kelly Ayotte, who is seeking re-election and could help draw voters to the party’s ticket. The GOP hopes those advantages will compensate for New Hampshire’s recent record of backing Democratic candidates for federal office.
Democrats need to gain four seats to take control of the Senate, although their route to a majority also depends on defending vulnerable seats and winning Republican-held contests elsewhere, including in North Carolina, Michigan, Iowa, Texas and Alaska.
With the New Hampshire primary held just eight weeks before polling day, both parties now face an unusually compressed campaign. The race is likely to become an early test of whether Republicans can convert a familiar political dynasty and a favourable national environment into a breakthrough in the Granite State.
