A new poll has revealed a sharp divide within Donald Trump’s coalition over the affordability crisis, with MAGA voters more likely to believe living costs have improved or were worse in the past, while other Trump supporters report growing financial pressure.
Only 28 per cent of voters who identify with the MAGA movement said expenses had become less affordable since Mr Trump took office. By contrast, non-MAGA voters who backed him in 2024 were considerably more pessimistic, with views closer to those of Kamala Harris voters.
The findings present a difficult challenge for Republicans ahead of November’s midterm elections. Cost of living is the most common concern among voters, but the issue is reinforcing opposition to Mr Trump while exposing divisions among his own supporters.
Seven in ten Harris voters said living costs were worse than they could ever remember, compared with 52 per cent of Trump voters who do not identify as MAGA. Among MAGA voters, the largest group, 43 per cent, said costs were bad but that they could remember times when they were worse.
The differences are not explained by substantially different changes to household budgets. Data from the Living Wage Institute showed that family budgets rose by an average of 2.5 per cent between early 2025 and early 2026 across the country.
Instead, the poll indicated that voters were divided over who was responsible for the pressure on household finances. Cost of living was the leading concern among each group, but MAGA supporters were the only bloc that remained broadly sympathetic to the administration.
Among non-MAGA Trump voters who said living costs were the worst they had seen, only 53 per cent said they would vote Republican if the midterms were held immediately. More than a quarter would choose a Democrat or a third-party candidate, while the remainder said they would stay at home or were undecided.
Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist, said some 2024 Trump voters would either support Democrats or not vote, but would not back Republicans they blamed for the cost of living.
Democrats have made affordability their central message for the autumn campaign. They are seeking to capitalise on dissatisfaction with Mr Trump’s economic agenda, including tariffs and an Iran war that has pushed up petrol prices.
Jason Roe, a Republican strategist based in Michigan, said Democratic voters were likely to be motivated to turn out, while some Republican voters were more difficult to mobilise.
“And we’ve got some voters that are a little harder to get to the polls, and when they are mad, frustrated, disappointed, disillusioned, in disagreement, and we don’t have them motivated, that’s going to be a problem,” he said.
Young voters turn against Republicans on costs
The findings also raised concerns for Republicans among younger voters, particularly young men. Of under-25s who said living costs were the worst they had ever been, 56 per cent trusted Democrats to reduce them, compared with 20 per cent who trusted Republicans.
Joe Mitchell, a 29-year-old Republican candidate for Iowa’s open and competitive second congressional district, said younger people felt the system was not working for them.
“You see them being attracted to some of these DSA candidates like Zohran Mamdani. And they’re going to be attracted to these candidates if we don’t figure something out for them now,” he said.
The poll also suggested that partisanship affects how Americans remember the economy. When asked about a specific calendar year, Trump and Harris voters often gave similar assessments of whether everyday goods had been affordable.
But their answers diverged when a presidential administration was attached to the question. Just over a third of both groups said it was easier to afford everyday items in 2024 than today. Asked instead about the end of Joe Biden’s presidency, 55 per cent of Harris voters said goods had been easier to afford, compared with 39 per cent of Trump voters.
A similar pattern emerged when voters were asked about Barack Obama’s presidency. While 63 per cent of Trump voters said goods had been easier to afford in 2010 than today, only 36 per cent gave that answer when the year was framed as the middle of Mr Obama’s first term.
Both parties were more likely to agree when questions referred to the period immediately before the Covid-19 pandemic or to 2019, with majorities saying everyday items had been easier to afford then.
Kevin Madden, a Republican communications strategist, said voters did not know which party had the better plan for the future, creating a widening divide between Washington and the rest of the country.
“When you see that gap emerge, watch out if you’re an incumbent,” he said.
