Victoria’s Liberal-National coalition is on course to win a majority at the November 28 election, according to new Roy Morgan polling that places the opposition comfortably ahead of Labor.
The coalition recorded support from 29.5 per cent of voters, compared with 22.5 per cent for Labor and 22 per cent for One Nation. The figures suggest the opposition could unseat Premier Ben Carroll’s government if the vote were held today.
On a two-party-preferred basis, the coalition leads Labor by 56 per cent to 44 per cent.
The poll was conducted by SMS between October 26 and 29, with more than 3,600 voters surveyed across Victoria. However, Roy Morgan said a coalition majority was not guaranteed because many seats remained highly contested and One Nation presented a significant threat.
Support for One Nation briefly increased after its Melbourne campaign launch on October 3, but has since fallen back to levels recorded before the event.
Coalition leads on two-party-preferred vote
On a three-party-preferred basis, Labor is ahead with 43 per cent, followed by the coalition on 33 per cent and One Nation on 24 per cent.
The difference is largely attributed to preferences flowing to Labor from Greens supporters, independent candidates and voters backing other parties. Overall, 26 per cent of those surveyed supported parties outside the three leading groupings, including 12.5 per cent for the Greens and 7.5 per cent for independents.
The polling comes as concerns grow about the risk of political violence before the election, following an attack on federal MP Helen Haines outside her electorate office in Wangaratta.
Victorian Electoral Commissioner Sven Bluemmel said voters should nevertheless feel safe participating in the democratic process.
“No one wants to see any kind of intimidation, or worse, when it comes to our democracy,” Mr Bluemmel told AAP. “(But) in the vast majority of cases, people behave really well.”
Mr Bluemmel said he was confident the attack would not undermine Victoria’s democracy, adding: “People get their democracy sausage or go to the local bake sale at the school. That’s … how we do democracy in Australia, and that’s how I think we need to keep doing democracy.”
