India’s statistics secretary has defended the country’s revised gross domestic product figures after a former finance secretary questioned whether changes to earlier data had made the latest growth rate appear stronger than it was.
Saurabh Garg said the estimate of 7.8% growth in the April-to-June quarter reflected more detailed price data, additional sources and methodological improvements, rather than any systematic bias in the official figures.
The latest figures were issued under a new GDP series, rebased to the 2022-23 financial year. Historical data was revised at the same time to reflect updated information and changes in the way economic activity is measured.
Subhash Chandra Garg, who previously served as finance secretary, argued that a substantial downward revision to GDP in the April-to-June quarter of the previous financial year had inflated the comparison with the latest figures. He said the growth rate at current prices would have been about 2.6% without that revision.
The statistics ministry rejected the comparison, saying it used figures from two different GDP series. Saurabh Garg said year-on-year growth should be assessed using constant prices, which remove the effect of price changes, rather than current-price figures.
India GDP revisions defended as new data is incorporated
India’s economy grew 7.8% in the first quarter of the 2026-27 financial year, according to the government’s latest estimate. Growth was slower than the revised 8.6% recorded in the January-to-March quarter, but higher than the 6.9% reported for the same period a year earlier.
The new methodology replaces the wholesale price index with a more detailed producer price index for parts of the calculation. The number of deflators used has risen from about 180 to more than 300, allowing statisticians to measure input and output prices more closely, particularly in manufacturing.
Mr Garg said the first-quarter estimate was unlikely to change substantially as further data becomes available, although adjustments of a few tenths of a percentage point remained possible. Quarterly figures are revised as information on company performance, government activity and actual output is received.
He also said the scale of India’s revisions was within the range seen internationally. A review of revisions by around 60 countries found changes ranging from declines of about 20% to increases of as much as 80%, compared with an approximately 2.9% reduction in India’s revised figures.
Mr Garg said there was no consistent upward or downward pattern in the revisions, with some quarters revised higher and others lower. The effect on annual growth rates was considerably smaller because annual estimates increasingly incorporate more complete production and financial data.
The dispute has been seized on by India’s opposition Congress party, whose general secretary Jairam Ramesh described the figures as “statistical gymnastics”. The statistics ministry has maintained that the revisions represent improved estimates based on updated information, rather than a correction of political or statistical manipulation.
