Harry Kane is the bookmakers’ favourite to win the 2026 men’s Ballon d’Or, with the Bayern Munich striker facing a close contest against Kylian Mbappe and Lamine Yamal at Monday’s ceremony in London.
Victory would make England captain Kane the first Englishman to receive the award since Michael Owen in 2001. He would also become only the fifth English winner, following Sir Stanley Matthews, Sir Bobby Charlton, Kevin Keegan and Owen.
Kane, who could become Bayern’s first Ballon d’Or winner in 45 years, has played down expectations despite being odds-on to claim the prize.
“It’d be incredible if I do. It’d be special for sure. I’d love to win it, but we will have to wait and see,” Kane said after Bayern’s Champions League draw with Arsenal. “A big night, but I’m not getting carried away.”
The case for Harry Kane
The award is based on performances across the whole of last season, from August 3 2025 to July 19 2026. Kane helped Bayern win the Bundesliga and German Cup, while also claiming the European Golden Shoe after scoring 61 goals for the club in all competitions.
His total of 73 goals for club and country was comfortably the highest among the leading contenders. Mbappe scored 58, while Yamal finished with 25.
Kane’s Bayern tally was 19 more than that of any other player in Europe’s five major leagues and was the highest seasonal total since Cristiano Ronaldo scored 61 for Real Madrid in 2014-15.
He added 12 goals for England, including six during the Three Lions’ run to the World Cup semi-finals, making him England’s leading scorer at the tournament.
Jamie Carragher believes that record gives Kane the strongest claim. “Kane should win the Ballon d’Or and the reason is because he’s scored 73 goals in a season and only Lionel Messi has scored more in a season,” he said.
“He also won the double with Bayern Munich and was part of an England team that got to the World Cup semi-finals.”
Tim Sherwood, Sue Smith, Michael Dawson and Clinton Morrison also backed Kane, with Sherwood arguing: “If he doesn’t win it now, then he never will.”
Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappe in contention
Yamal, 19, is 14 years younger than Kane and is seeking to become the youngest player to win the Ballon d’Or. The Barcelona forward has openly argued that he has been performing at the required level for more than one season.
“Being completely honest, it’s not just this year I’ve been at a Ballon d’Or [winning] level, but longer,” Yamal said in September.
He won LaLiga and a domestic Super Cup with Barcelona, while also helping Spain win the World Cup. However, he scored only once during the tournament after returning from a hamstring injury that had threatened his participation.
Yamal’s main statistical advantage over his rivals was his creativity. He supplied 20 assists for club and country, compared with 13 for Mbappe and eight for Kane, and recorded the most dribbles in both the World Cup and Europe’s top five leagues during the 2025-26 season.
His 45 goal involvements were nevertheless below Kane’s 81 and Mbappe’s 71. Yamal had also missed the end of Barcelona’s season because of injury before returning as a substitute in Spain’s World Cup opener.
Mbappe has moved ahead of Yamal to become Kane’s closest challenger in the betting after a late rise in support. The Real Madrid forward and France captain failed to win a trophy with either club or country last season, but he produced the strongest individual scoring numbers at the World Cup and in the Champions League.
Mbappe won the World Cup Golden Boot with 10 goals, the highest total in a single edition since Gerd Muller reached the same figure in 1970. He also became the tournament’s all-time leading scorer with 22 goals.
For Real Madrid, Mbappe was LaLiga’s top scorer with 25 goals and led the Champions League scoring charts with 15, one more than Kane, despite his side going out in the quarter-finals.
Honours could decide a tight race
Kane’s Bayern reached the Champions League semi-finals, where they lost 6-5 on aggregate to eventual winners Paris Saint-Germain. Barcelona and Real Madrid both exited at the quarter-final stage.
Yamal has the strongest international achievement after Spain’s World Cup triumph. Kane and England finished with bronze after defeating Mbappe’s France in the third-place play-off.
Paul Merson said the decision was difficult because of Yamal’s World Cup success, but added: “I’m hoping Kane because Lamine Yamal’s going to win it three to five times in years to come, so I’d like Kane to win – and it’s in London, which ticks another box.”
Should Kane, Mbappe or Yamal win, the result would mark the third successive year in which a new name has taken the men’s prize after a period dominated by Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.
The 30-player shortlist also includes Jude Bellingham, Erling Haaland, Bruno Fernandes, Declan Rice, Michael Olise, Rodri, Vinicius Junior and Messi.
